Severe weather is expected to continue impacting the South throughout the weekend, with several systems bringing the threat of tornadoes, hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center has issued multiple warnings, and there will be a heightened risk for severe storms from Friday through Monday.
Severe Weather Timeline and Threat Areas
Friday (April 24)
The first round of severe storms is expected to form between Oklahoma and Minnesota, with the most significant threat moving south into the Mississippi Valley by Friday evening. As a cold front pushes across the Plains, instability from daytime heating of moist air will create favorable conditions for thunderstorms.
Key areas affected on Friday include:
- Dallas, TX
- Shreveport, LA
- Little Rock, AR
The severe weather threat is at a Level 2 out of 5, meaning isolated storms capable of producing tornadoes, hail, and strong winds are likely.
Saturday (April 25)
Severe storms will continue on Saturday, starting in the late afternoon along a warm front in the Southern Plains. The initial supercells will grow into a line of storms, with the potential for all severe weather hazards, including tornadoes.
The storm risk on Saturday escalates to Level 3 out of 5, with stronger storms expected to impact:
- Southern Kansas
- Northern Oklahoma
- Wichita, KS
- Tulsa, OK
Sunday (April 26)
Sunday will see a more significant system develop, bringing a sharp dryline extending into Texas. Strong southerly winds will transport moisture northward, combining with high instability and wind shear to create an environment conducive to severe storms.
The potential for dangerous supercells is high, with the threat of tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds continuing into the evening. The Level 3 risk will remain in place, and a potentially significant severe weather event is expected late in the afternoon and evening.
Monday (April 27)
By Monday, the surface low will move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley, bringing the severe storm threat to cities like:
- Memphis, TN
- Jackson, MS
- Birmingham, AL
- Nashville, TN
All severe weather hazards remain possible, depending on how Sunday’s storms unfold. If widespread severe weather occurs on Sunday, it could fuel even stronger storms across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. However, uncertainty remains regarding the severity and timing of Monday’s storm risks.
Supercells and Flash Flooding
A supercell thunderstorm is a type of thunderstorm characterized by a rotating updraft, known as a mesocyclone. These storms are capable of producing severe weather like tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. They are often the most dangerous types of storms.
In addition to tornadoes and hail, flash flooding is a significant concern. With multiple rounds of heavy rain across the same areas, a widespread 2 to 3 inches of rain is expected through Tuesday, especially from Missouri to Georgia. In some areas, localized rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches or more are possible, particularly across Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee.
