If you only listened to the pronatalists, you’d believe that the falling global population is a major problem. However, some scientists from Flinders University disagree.
In their study published in Environmental Research Letters, they argue that maybe the population decline isn’t as disastrous as it seems because, according to their calculations, humanity already passed its sustainable population limit long ago.
The study tracks the relationship between the global population and the Earth’s resources over time. The researchers discovered that in the mid-20th century, the balance between the growth of the human population and the planet’s ability to support it was disrupted.
Before the 1950s, as the population grew, so did the availability of resources, which helped fuel the rise of global civilization. This created a positive cycle, making expansion sustainable.
However, things changed as the population continued to rise, but the efficiency of resource use decreased. This shift marked what the researchers call a “negative demographic phase,” where adding more people no longer led to faster growth or benefits. In fact, it started making things harder, according to study lead author Cory Bradshaw, a Professor of Global Ecology at Flinders University.
Is Earth Overcrowded?
Currently, the global population is around 8.3 billion. While it continues to grow, the rate of growth is slowing down. This decline in growth is a trend that has been widely discussed in various forums. Population growth is expected to peak between 11.7 billion and 12.4 billion by the late 2060s or early 2070s. After that, we are expected to see a population decline, which hasn’t happened since the time of the Black Death.
The real challenge, however, isn’t just the number of people but the vast amount of resources required to sustain our civilization. The excessive use of fossil fuels, intensified food production, and massive industrial growth have taken their toll.
The researchers argue that instead of facing resource limits, humanity has used oil and gas to delay the consequences of trying to provide for the growing population. This has led to a system that is now cracked and on the verge of collapse.
How Many People Can the Earth Really Support?
The study’s researchers estimate that while the global population might peak at around 11 or 12 billion, the number of people the Earth can sustainably support is much lower — probably around 2.5 billion.
This is far less than our current population and much lower than what we are heading towards. Unfortunately, we have already surpassed that number, and the growth is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.
