A U.S. special forces soldier has been arrested and charged with using classified government information to place bets on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, allegedly earning over $400,000 in profits.
The soldier, Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve, which resulted in Maduro’s capture in a covert military operation. Van Dyke allegedly made 13 bets on the event using Polymarket, a well-known prediction market platform, in the days leading up to the operation.
Alleged Insider Trading and Profits
Van Dyke, stationed at Fort Bragg, is accused of placing a $32,000 bet in late December, predicting that Maduro would be “out” by January. Despite the bet being a long-shot, Van Dyke was involved in the operation and had access to classified information before making the wager. On January 2, hours before the operation, he placed his final bet, and upon the successful completion of the mission, he profited $400,000.
According to prosecutors, Van Dyke then transferred his winnings to a foreign cryptocurrency vault and subsequently moved them to an online brokerage account to hide the source of the funds. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) also filed a related complaint against him, seeking restitution, disgorgement, and civil penalties.
Van Dyke’s Arrest
Van Dyke was arrested after an investigation by the Department of Justice and was charged with five criminal counts, including theft, fraud, and misusing confidential government information. He will appear in court in North Carolina, but no attorney has been listed for him.
Prosecutors highlighted that those entrusted with safeguarding national secrets have a responsibility not to exploit such information for personal financial gain. Jay Clayton, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, stated, “Those entrusted to safeguard our nation’s secrets have a duty to protect them and not to use that information for personal financial gain.”
Operation Absolute Resolve and Maduro’s Capture
The military operation, known as Operation Absolute Resolve, resulted in Maduro’s extradition from his presidential palace in Caracas, Venezuela, under heavy gunfire. Maduro was transported to New York to face federal drug-trafficking charges, to which he has pleaded not guilty. This operation involved covert efforts to apprehend Maduro, and the betting event took place just hours before the capture.
Polymarket’s Role
The Polymarket platform, where Van Dyke placed his bets, has faced scrutiny for its role in allowing users to place predictions on various geopolitical events, including wars, despite such markets being illegal in the U.S. under federal law. While Polymarket’s international site is based outside U.S. jurisdiction, experts note that U.S. citizens can still access the platform through a VPN.
Polymarket’s CEO recently acknowledged the potential for insiders to influence markets by revealing confidential information for financial gain. In response, the platform introduced new rules in March to clarify prohibited insider trading conduct, including banning trades based on confidential information and prohibiting those in positions of authority from participating in related markets.
President Trump Weighs In
President Donald Trump was asked about the incident, drawing a comparison between Van Dyke’s betting and Pete Rose’s gambling on his own baseball team.
Trump expressed concern about the growing trend of betting on geopolitical events, saying, “The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.” He also referenced Polymarket and its operation in the international market, suggesting that such activities raise global concerns.
Future of Prediction Markets
As prediction markets gain popularity, lawmakers in Congress have introduced several bills aimed at regulating such markets, with bipartisan support for measures that would stiffen penalties against government officials involved in insider trading.
Despite these concerns, prediction markets continue to grow, with billions of dollars being wagered each week, sparking debates on their ethical and legal implications.
